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Altcoin demand meets $18B threat as flows move into RWA perps as just 19% of traders keep alts

In the markets Talos tracked, daily volume in RWA perpetual futures tied to equities, commodities and indices rose from less than $1 billion in January to $18.8 billion during Sept. 3-9. That represented 18.5% of futures volume across those venues.

Crypto exchanges built their derivatives businesses around perpetual futures, and the same contract structure now wraps exposure to oil, gold, stocks, indices, and pre-IPO companies.

The Talos data show that crypto-perpetual volume declined over the comparison period while total futures activity in its sample remained roughly flat, with traditional-asset contracts filling the volume gap.

The changing product mix creates a real competitive threat for altcoins. Traders no longer need a new token to find leverage, volatility, or a market that stays open around the clock.

Wallet behavior on Hyperliquid points to mostly separate customer groups, with a smaller group trading across both markets.

Hyperliquid’s traders mostly stay in their lanes

Talos found that traditional asset perps represented 28% of futures volume on Hyperliquid and 24.8% on Binance in its sample. Oil led the weekly increase as Brent crossed $100, showing how crypto venues can capture trading around an event unrelated to cryptocurrency.

CoinDesk Research reported that centralized-exchange volume rose 12.7% month over month to $4.29 trillion in August. Spot increased 18.7%, derivatives rose 11.3%, and traditional-asset perpetual volume increased 2.37% to $602 billion.

Both traditional-asset and crypto activity expanded during that month. Substitution could still occur within a specific venue or account, while the aggregate figures show that the two categories can also grow together.

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Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework lets outside builders deploy markets, including contracts linked to stocks and commodities. DefiLlama divided new wallets into RWA-first and “Other-first” cohorts based on the market of their first Hyperliquid trade.

From Jan. 1 through June 30, DefiLlama classified 169,514 new wallets as RWA-first. They represented 31.7% of new wallets and generated $111.6 billion (31.5%) of the trading volume produced by new users.

The economics of this acquisition cohort differed sharply from its share of activity: RWA-first wallets generated only 8.3% of the main trading fees paid by new users in the study.

RWA-first wallets kept 83.6% of their volume in RWA markets, while Other-first wallets, whose first trade was in crypto or another non-RWA market, sent 22.8% of their volume into RWA markets and produced roughly 40% of RWA-market volume.

Group Trading behavior Reader takeaway
RWA-first wallets 31.7% of new wallets, 31.5% of new-user volume Traditional-asset markets attracted a substantial new cohort, though its capital source remains unknown
RWA-first wallets 83.6% of volume stayed in RWA markets Most traded primarily in the product category they entered through
Other-first wallets Roughly 40% of RWA-market volume Existing crypto-platform users crossed into traditional assets, with changes to their crypto positions unmeasured
Traditional-asset perpetuals reached $18.8 billion in daily volume, but wallet segmentation and falling retained revenue complicate claims of an altcoin exodus.

A DefiLlama follow-up found that 80.9% of RWA-first wallets never crossed into the other market, while 82% of Other-first wallets never crossed into RWA markets.