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The two-week ceasefire announced between the US-Israel and Iran in the Middle East is facing threats due to multiple reasons. The cessation of ship movement in the Strait of Hormuz, extensive Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and reciprocal tensions in the Persian Gulf are once again destabilizing the situation.
According to a report by The Washington Post, less than 24 hours after the ceasefire, Iran accused the United States and Israel of violating the agreement and warned of withdrawing from negotiations.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated that attacks in Lebanon, the downing of a drone in Iranian airspace, and Donald Trump’s objection to uranium enrichment are all examples of violations of the ceasefire terms.
Major Disagreement Over Lebanon Issue
Lebanon has become the biggest point of contention in the ceasefire. Mediator Shehbaz Sharif initially stated that the agreement included Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
However, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clarified that Lebanon is not part of this ceasefire. The White House conveyed the same position. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that while Iran has agreed to abandon its uranium program, Lebanon is not covered by the agreement.
Regarding this, US Vice President JD Vance stated, “It was essentially a misunderstanding—Iran thought Lebanon was part of the agreement, but it was not.”
Stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global energy supply, has almost come to a standstill. Although a limited number of tankers were initially permitted to pass, this was subsequently halted.
Donald Trump urged Iran on social media to open the strait “fully, safely, and immediately.”
Meanwhile, Iran is attempting to consolidate its control over the strait. The country may impose fees for vessel transit and has proposed joint security with Oman.
Economic Impact of the War
This nearly six-week war has significantly impacted the global economy. Fuel prices in the United States have almost doubled, and political pressure has also increased.
Following the ceasefire announcement, oil prices dropped by over 15 percent. According to analysts, fuel prices might decrease slightly in the short term, but the long-term situation remains uncertain.
War Damages
The report states that Iran’s infrastructure has been extensively damaged by over 15,000 attacks from the United States and Israel, resulting in the destruction of factories, bridges, research centers, military installations, and government buildings.
According to human rights organizations, approximately 15,000 civilians have been killed in the conflict. Conversely, 13 US soldiers were killed and over 380 were injured in Iranian attacks.
Uncertain Discussions Ahead
Discussions between the two sides are scheduled to begin next Friday in Pakistan. These talks may cover the nuclear program and the future of highly enriched uranium.
The US Department of Defense has stated that it is prepared to launch military operations again if necessary.
Overall, while the ceasefire offers temporary relief, it is feared that it could collapse at any moment due to mutual distrust, incomplete terms, and ongoing military activities.