European airports face jet fuel shortages within three weeks – reports
Jasper Jolly
European airports have warned the EU that jet fuel shortages could hit the summer holiday season if oil supplies do not start to flow through the strait of Hormuz within the next three weeks.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe reportedly wrote to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas saying that the bloc is three weeks away from shortages. The letter was first reported by the Financial Times.
The warning will raise concerns of a risk of flight or holiday cancellations if the US and Israel’s war on Iran continues. Oil prices have soared since the start of March after Iran effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for exports from the Gulf, in retaliation.
Donald Trump this week announced a ceasefire, but Brent crude oil prices remained at around $96 per barrel on Friday amid concerns over whether it would hold.
The letter said, according to the Financial Times:
If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.
Jet fuel prices have soared since the end of February after the attacks on Iran ordered by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Global jet fuel prices at the end of last week had more than doubled compared to last year to $1,650 per tonne, according to figures tracked by Iata, an airline lobby group.
The worst hit region for price increases has been Asia, with prices up 163% year-on-year. However, prices in Europe were still up by 138%, amid a global scramble to secure fuel.
Key events
Energy prices in the US jump 10.9% in March
Energy prices in the US rose by 10.9% in March compared with the prior month, official inflation stats show.
That included a 21% rise in the index for gasoline, which the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said accounted for nearly three-quarters of the overall inflation figure for March.
Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, says:
Energy prices unsurprisingly took the top spot in terms of upward pressure, with an overall rise of 10.9% on the month and 12.5% in the 12 months to March.
This includes a 21.2% monthly and 18.9% annual rise in gasoline prices and a huge 30.7% monthly and 44.2% annual rise in fuel oil prices. While oil prices have tumbled since the news of the ceasefire broke, they remain considerably elevated compared to pre-war levels and they’ll likely stay there for some time yet – even if a resolution is found relatively swiftly.
President Trump won’t be best pleased with today’s inflation print and given his heavy criticism of Joe Biden’s handling of inflation during his tenure as President, we can expect him to be rather sensitive to such a significant swing. Trump will be pinning his hopes on the ceasefire holding, as if the peace talks are not productive then there’s a real risk of a further spike.
At last month’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, Jerome Powell said the central bank would be unlikely to need to raise rates in response given oil price moves and the pressure they can add tends to be temporary. However, the sheer scale of the price shock this time around, alongside the uncertainty over the level of damage done to energy infrastructure and when supply routes will fully reopen, mean the Fed cannot dismiss it entirely.
Nonetheless, a hold is widely expected at its meeting later this month as it continues to sit in ‘wait and see’ mode, but all eyes will be on whether there is any indication of a change in its stance or if it will continue to bide its time.”
US inflation hits 3.3% in March amid Iran war energy shock
Lauren Aratani
US inflation soared in March amid the US-Israel war with Iran, with prices up 0.9% compared to last month and 3.3% over the year, according to new data released Friday.
The spike in the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the price of a basket of goods and services, is the largest in nearly two years and the first official measure of how the conflict has impacted US consumer prices, particularly as Iran blocked the strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas would typically pass through.
The annualised inflation rate has not pushed past 3% since summer 2024, when inflation was finally cooling after reaching a generational high of 9.1% in June 2022.
The war on Iran has driven the American economy into deeper uncertainty, adding to a precariousness that first came with Donald Trump’s tariffs last year. Inflation reached a four-year low last April, when price increases dropped to 2.3%. It rose to 3% by September, before coming back down to 2.4% in January and February.
European airports face jet fuel shortages within three weeks – reports
Jasper Jolly
European airports have warned the EU that jet fuel shortages could hit the summer holiday season if oil supplies do not start to flow through the strait of Hormuz within the next three weeks.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe reportedly wrote to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas saying that the bloc is three weeks away from shortages. The letter was first reported by the Financial Times.
The warning will raise concerns of a risk of flight or holiday cancellations if the US and Israel’s war on Iran continues. Oil prices have soared since the start of March after Iran effectively closed the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for exports from the Gulf, in retaliation.
Donald Trump this week announced a ceasefire, but Brent crude oil prices remained at around $96 per barrel on Friday amid concerns over whether it would hold.
The letter said, according to the Financial Times:
If the passage through the strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.
Jet fuel prices have soared since the end of February after the attacks on Iran ordered by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Global jet fuel prices at the end of last week had more than doubled compared to last year to $1,650 per tonne, according to figures tracked by Iata, an airline lobby group.
The worst hit region for price increases has been Asia, with prices up 163% year-on-year. However, prices in Europe were still up by 138%, amid a global scramble to secure fuel.
Miranda Bryant
In Norway, which has seen record month-on-month fuel price rises as a result of the war in Iran, a convoy of lorries drove in protest to the Norwegian parliament in Oslo.
Around 70-80 lorries, some bearing “nok er nok!” (“enough is enough!”) banners, joined Dieselbrølet (the diesel roar) on Friday calling for action on the issue. But only a handful of them were allowed to drive into the capital.
The Norwegian government cut fuel taxes on 1 April, but lorry drivers say they need more predictable and lower prices.
Despite being an oil producing nation, global markets mean that Norway has seen a sharp rise in fuel prices since the start of the war in Iran. Statistics Norway said the price of fuel and lubricants rose by 17.9% from February to March, with diesel prices in that period soaring by 23.6%.
Meanwhile, in Denmark, the far-right Danish People’s Party tried to use discontent over high fuel prices to win over voters in the recent election by paying for their petrol on election day.
Fuel protests spread across Europe as prices rise
It’s not just in Ireland – protests are starting to spread in other parts of Europe as the conflict in the Middle East drives up the price of fuel.
In Norway, truck and tractor drivers are on their way to Oslo to protest the spike in fuel prices. The protest, called “Dieselbrølet”, or “the diesel roar”, is headed to the Norwegian parliament.
In France, the government has stepped in to prevent widespread shortages by allowing fuel tankers to circulate on weekends and public holidays until 11 May.
The French government said in a statement to Le Parisien that the measure was due to “the essential nature for the national economy of ensuring the continuity of hydrocarbon distribution in service stations” and “the need to prevent any risk of disruption to fuel supplies to service stations in the context of the armed conflict in the Middle East “.
And closer to home, farmers in England who claim their fuel bills have doubled since the start of the war in Iran have called on the government for more support.
Ashley Jones, a farmer and chairman of Cornwall National Farmers’ Union (NFU), told the BBC that “stressed and worried” colleagues had been calling him daily about their reliance on fuel for running equipment.
He said if fuel prices remained high, it will be difficult for farmers to plant crops in the autumn because of uncertainty around costs.
Jones told the BBC:
We’re so heavily reliant on fuel to do our day-to-day jobs, whether it’s looking after animals or looking after the crops; we can’t be without it.”
He told the broadcaster that farmers need 250 to 300 litres (55 to 65 gallons) of fuel a day for each tractor. That cost £200 before the war, and now is nearly £400, he said.
Fears of fuel shortages in Ireland as army called in to tackle blockages
In Ireland, fears are growing over fuel shortages as the army is called in to tackle blockades.
Protests over high fuel prices are now in their fourth day, with slow-moving convoys restricting access to some of the busiest roads in Dublin and blocking fuel depots.
Some protesters have slept in their vehicles overnight, according to reports.
It comes after the war in Iran has driven up the price of petrol – with filling stations in Ireland selling petrol for around €1.94per litre. Diesel is available for around €2.19.
The broadcaster RTE is reporting that more than 100 service stations have now run out of fuel and the number could be five times as many by Friday evening if supplies remain disrupted.
The Irish government is expected to meet with farmers, truckers and agricultural contractors today to discuss the crisis, according to Reuters – although it is unclear whether the protest organisers, who have said they will call off the blockade if the government agrees to talk with them – will be included in the talks.
But Irish justice minister Jim O’Callaghan claimed on Thursday that protesters are being “manipulated” by “outside actors” who want to advance their own political measures or “really want to damage our country”.
Dolce & Gabbana co-founder Stefano Gabbana quits as chair
Chloe Mac Donnell
Stefano Gabbana left his post as chair of Dolce & Gabbana at the start of this year, the design house he co-founded with his then partner, Domenico Dolce, in 1985 has said.
The Italian luxury fashion house said Gabbana had tendered his resignation, effective as of 1 January, “as part of a natural evolution of its organisational structure and governance”.
It added:
These resignations have no impact whatsoever on the creative activities carried out by Stefano Gabbana on behalf of the group.”
Alfonso Dolce, Domenico’s brother and the current D&G chief executive, took over the role in January, according to Bloomberg, which first reported Gabbana’s resignation.
The designer is also said to be considering options for his 40% stake in the company ahead of negotiations with its bank lenders, with the former Gucci CEO Stefano Cantino taking on a top management role as part of the reshuffle.
Markets are muted this morning, but the mood is likely to pick up this afternoon when the latest US inflation reading lands.
The figures are expected to capture the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the cost of living in the US.
Economists at State Street, which has its own measure of inflation ‘PriceStats’, found that it rose by 1.5% in March compared with the prior month – its biggest monthly increase since at least July 2008. It compares with a monthly rate of 0.4% in February.
Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Markets, said:
US inflation jumped sharply in March, marking the biggest month-on-month increase in prices since at least 2008, when our PriceStats data series began.
…This means that in just one month, the inflation picture has shifted materially. The disinflation trend seen later in 2025 has faded, and expectations for a lower inflation rate in 2026 are being reassessed even before official March data are published.
What happens next will depend in large part on energy prices and how quickly those costs feed through to everyday items. Early PriceStats sector data for March point to above-average monthly increases in areas such as recreation, electronics and apparel. For now, energy is driving both the headline numbers and the uncertainty about the next move from markets and central banks.
The official US inflation data will land at 1.30pm BST.
North Sea oil prices hit highs not seen since 2008
Jillian Ambrose
The global oil price may have remained below $100 a barrel this week following the two-week ceasefire agreed in the Middle East – but physical deliveries of regional crude have changed hands at much higher prices in a sign of the ongoing strain on the world’s energy supplies.
The price used to value oil deliveries from the North Sea, known as the Forties blend, reached highs not recorded since 2008 at almost $147 a barrel on Thursday as global refineries were forced to vie for fresh cargoes, according to LSEG data.
The UK’s regional crude blend is narrowly above the price of dated Brent crude, an international benchmark for physical cargoes due for delivery within one month. Dated Brent for June deliveries reached $131.97 a barrel on Thursday afternoon down from a record high of $144.42 on Tuesday, according to data compiled by Platts.
The price of physical crude stands in contrast to the oft-quoted Brent futures price, a financial ‘paper’ contract, which fell from around $110 a barrel last week to under $95 a barrel after the temporary ceasefire agreed by the US-Israeli alliance and Iran on Tuesday.
The fragile truce raised hopes of a resolution to the chokepoint disrupting Gulf energy exports through the strait of Hormuz, but the agreement has not led to a meaningful increase in the number of oil and gas tankers transiting the narrow trade route leading to a disconnect between the financial and physical markets for crude.
The gap between dated Brent, for physical deliveries in the next month, and near-dated Brent futures, which now refers to deliveries in July has surged to an all-time high, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank explained that markets value barrels delivered in April more than barrels delivered this summer, likely because they see a high probability of the disruption being short-lived. Meanwhile, shortages in the near-term continue to grow.
Investors take a ‘glass-half-full view’ of ceasefire deal
Now a couple of hours into trading, the FTSE 100 is still pretty flat this morning, and the Stoxx Europe 600 is up by about 0.4%.
Matt Britzman, an equity analyst at the broker Hargreaves Lansdown, says investors are taking a “glass-half-full view” of the ceasefire in the Middle East.
Global stock markets look set to end a volatile week on a more positive footing, with investor sentiment showing tentative signs of recovery heading into the weekend. The FTSE 100 opened broadly flat this morning, with US markets expected to follow suit later this afternoon.
While the term ‘ceasefire’ is used somewhat loosely, there has been enough perceived de-escalation in the Middle East to ease some of the pressure on risk assets we saw earlier in the week. The prospect of in-person talks between the US and Iran over the weekend is also helping steady nerves, offering hope that diplomatic channels remain open. Taken together, investors are becoming more comfortable that, while risks remain, the broader trajectory is moving in the right direction.
He adds that gold, which is normally used as a safe haven asset during volatile periods, is on track for its third consecutive weekly gain. It is currently trading at about $4,739 per ounce, down 0.46%.
…Although it has not acted as the store of wealth or shock absorber that many might have expected during the recent Middle East tensions. That is largely because interest rate expectations have been the bigger driver of price action, outweighing the typical risk-off demand. This week’s tentative ceasefire, coupled with news of talks over the weekend, has shifted rate expectations into a more favourable position for gold, helping support the latest move higher.”
Japan confirms release of more oil reserves
Justin McCurry
Japan will release additional oil reserves early next month, the prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday, as concern grows over energy shortages caused by the crisis in the Middle East.
It will be the second time that Japan, which is heavily dependent on Middle East oil, has dipped into its strategic reserves since the US-Israel war on Iran started in February.
Last month Takaichi approved the release of 50 days’ worth of oil – the government’s biggest ever release – as the government attempted to head off a spike in prices.
She said at a ministerial meeting held to discuss the conflict:
To ensure the stable supply of crude oil, we will release starting in early May the equivalent of roughly 20 days’ worth [of oil] from the national reserves.
Japan has enough oil in reserve to last 230 days, but it is also imports 95% of its crude oil from Middle East, most of which is transported through the strait of Hormuz.
Most of Japan’s reserves – 143 days’ worth – are state owned, with the remainder belonging to the private sector and oil-producing countries in the Gulf.
Japan is also trying to secure oil from locations that do not ship via the strait of Hormuz, amid uncertainty over whether the waterway will fully reopen after a two-week conditional ceasefire announced by Donald Trump this week.
By May, Japan should be able to secure more than half of oil imports via other routes, Takaichi said, although she did not provide details.
Scott Bessent called in US banks to discuss Anthropic cyber risk – reports
Kalyeena Makortoff
The US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, summoned major American bank chiefs to a meeting in Washington this week amid concerns over the cyber risks posed by Anthropic’s latest AI model, according to reports.
Bosses including the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, were said to have gathered at the Treasury headquarters for the meeting after the release of the Claude Mythos AI model that Anthropic says poses unprecedented cybersecurity risks.
A recent leak of Claude’s code prompted the startup to release a blogpost at the beginning of the month saying that AI models had surpassed “all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities”, adding: “The fallout – for economies, public safety, and national security – could be severe.”
This week’s meeting was reportedly called while bank bosses were already in Washington for a lobby group meeting, with a guest list focused on heads of systemically important banks – meaning regulators believe a major disruption to their operations, or their potential collapse, would put financial stability at risk.
Attenders included the Goldman Sachs chief executive, David Solomon, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick and the Wells Fargo boss Charlie Scharf, according to Bloomberg, which first reported details of the meeting. JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon was invited but unable to attend.
The rise in the oil price is strengthening this morning, with Brent crude – the international benchmark – now up 1.9% to $97.79 a barrel.
European stocks open tentatively higher
There is a cautious mood this morning in the European stock market, with some small rises across the board.
The UK’s blue chip FTSE 100 is up very slightly by 0.1%, while the French Cac 40 index is practically flat. The German Dax is also up 0.1%.
The Stoxx Europe 600, which tracks the biggest companies across the continent, has ticked up 0.2%.
Some investors will be waiting for signs out of planned talks this weekend over US and Iran, says Richard Hunter, of the broker Interactive Investor.
Ahead of planned talks this weekend between the warring parties on a possible permanent solution, there clearly remains much to iron out. Most notably, Iran is maintaining its control of the strait of Hormuz, with reports suggesting that the passage remains effectively closed with only bulk carriers carrying dry cargo, rather than oil, getting through.
At the same time, the US military is maintaining its presence in the region, although more positively Israel has opened the door to negotiations with Lebanon, after Iran had called the ongoing attacks a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Nonetheless, this was apparently enough for the bulls to nibble on, despite another tick higher in the oil price. [Yesterday] the Nasdaq continued with its recovery, helped along by a gain of almost 3% for Meta Platforms as it revealed its new AI model.
…The cautious progress has improved the fortunes of the main indices and has tipped the Dow Jones into positive territory, now guarding a cautious gain of 0.3% for the year so far. Meanwhile, the more tech-focused S&P500 and Nasdaq remain in the red but on an improving trend, with losses of 0.3% and 1.8% respectively in the year to date.
The electronics retailer AO World is also reassuring investors that it has some shelter from rising energy costs. It said in a statement this morning:
The Group had hedging arrangements in place in advance of recent geopolitical developments, covering approximately 80% of forecast fuel usage and 100% of electricity usage which cover the full FY27 trading period.
The company, which sells electronic goods such as fridges as well as laptops and PCs, added that its profit is on track to be at the “top end” of its £45-50m guided range for its year ended in March.
Its shares are up by about 7% in early trading.
Student landlord Unite ‘well protected’ from energy costs rise
Closer to home this morning, the student landlord Unite has told investors that it is “well protected” from energy price increases triggered by the war in Iran.
The company said in a trading statement:
Our hedging strategy for utility costs means we are well protected in the near-term from the impact of recent increases in energy prices following the onset of the conflict in Iran.
The accommodation provider has also maintained its guidance for occupancy and rental growth, at the lower end of their respective ranges for the 2026/27 academic year.
About 74% of Unite’s beds have been reserved for the 2026/27 academic year, compared with a rate of 76% in the year prior.
Oli Creasey, head of property research at Quilter Cheviot, says:
The company’s portfolio reservation rate for the upcoming academic year is behind the rate observed this time last year, despite last year itself being slow historically. The company is also continuing to guide to the low end of provided ranges for occupancy and rental growth in the coming year.
Also of note is that management is accelerating the rate of disposals of assets as the company looks to shrink the portfolio and focus on the cities with the best opportunities. The ongoing disposal programme is going as planned, but Goldman Sachs has been appointed as an adviser to propose ways that disposals could go further or faster than previous expectations. What exactly this will look like remains to be seen, but the acceleration theme suggests it could be potentially transformative for the portfolio.
Asian stock markets rose overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei index and China’s CSI300 index both up by about 1.8%. The South Korean Kospi rose 1.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng nudged up 0.5%.
Mohit Kumar, of the broker Jefferies, notes that markets “want to rally”.
We do acknowledge that the ceasefire is fragile and risks of a short term escalation to gain an upper hand in negotiations remain. But the view that is that any dips would be a buying opportunity. We are still keeping the risk profile low given the potential for near term volatility.
Introduction: Oil prices tick up amid worries over US-Iran ceasefire deal
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
There has been another small rise in the oil price this morning, as doubt lingers around the US-Iran ceasefire deal.
Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, has ticked up 0.6% to $96.45 a barrel, having plunged by more than 10% earlier in the week to below $100 a barrel after news of the agreement first emerged.
But the fragility of the deal is testing investor nerves. US president Donald Trump has warned Iran that charging fees for passage through the strait of Hormuz, the key shipping channel through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply normally passes, is “not the agreement we have”.
He wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social:
There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait — They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!
A few hours later he wrote:
Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!
However, the president has also told reporters that he was “very optimistic” a peace deal was within reach and that he had asked Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pull back on strikes in Lebanon.
He told NBC News:
I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key.
Meanwhile, the impact of the war in Iran is spreading across the global supply chain: China has recorded its first year-on-year increase in factory gate prices since 2022.
The producer prise index rose 0.5% in March year-on-year, compared with a drop of 0.9% in February. The last time Chinese producer inflation was positive was in September 2022.
Kelvin Lam, a senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, explains:
Industries that are more tied to energy as an input, or with intermediate inputs that have a high energy content, are witnessing higher factory gate prices despite soft domestic demand and the ongoing slump in the property sector.
Earlier industrial profit data point in the same direction, with energy-intensive and metal industries seeing moderate improvements in margins, suggesting modest pass-through to end users. According to the NBS, oil and gas extraction PPI rose 15.8% m/m in March, while petroleum and coal processing PPI increased by 5.8%. Chemical products PPI rose 3.6%, while non-ferrous metal processing eased to 1.0% from 3.6% in February.
Consumer prices however rose 1% year-on-year in March, which marked a deceleration against an annual rate of 1.3% in February.
The agenda
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1.30pm BST: US CPI inflation rate and real earnings data for March
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3pm BST: US factory orders
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3pm BST: University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index