Key events
Shares rally and oil rebounds as Trump extends Iran ultimatum
Recapping financial markets’ response after Donald Trump postponed the bombing of Iranian power plants: oil prices bounced back and Asian stocks rallied as immediate fears of a deeper energy shock were allayed.
Traders were quick to react to the reversal on Monday, sending crude futures tumbling and shares surging, while the US dollar and government bond yields fell, Reuters reports.
Most of the movement carried over to the Asian trading session on Tuesday, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rising 1.3%, while shares in Australia were up 0.7%.
Japan’s Nikkei advanced more than 2%, reversing most of Monday’s 3.5% decline.
Oil prices, meanwhile, edged higher on Tuesday after sliding 10% in the previous session. Brent crude futures were up 1% at $100.94 a barrel, while US crude rose 1.9% to $89.84.
Still, movement was highly volatile. “Markets are not out of the woods,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
Price action could remain choppy into Friday’s revised deadline … The key question is whether participants see this as a genuine extension that brings a deal closer, or simply a delay that prolongs uncertainty.
Opening summary
Welcome to our ongoing coverage of the US-Israeli war on Iran and its wider repercussions in the Middle East and globally.
Donald Trump has claimed the US and Iran have held talks in which the two sides had “major points of agreement”, and speculated that a deal could soon be done to end the war, a claim contradicted by Tehran.
Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) called Trump’s words “psychological operations” that had no impact on Tehran’s fight, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said it was “fake news … used to manipulate the financial and oil markets”.
Despite doubts about any direct negotiations, a European official said Egypt, Pakistan and Gulf states were relaying messages. On Tuesday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said it was time for negotiations with Iran, given the global energy situation was now “critical”.
Speaking in Australia at the conclusion of a new free-trade agreement between the EU and Australia, she said: “The situation is critical for the energy supply allies worldwide. We all feel the knock-on effects on gas and oil prices, our businesses and our societies, but it is of utmost importance that we come to a solution that is negotiated, and this puts an end to the hostilities that we see in the Middle East.”
A Pakistani official and a second source told Reuters that direct talks on ending the war could be held in Islamabad this week. The Pakistani official said the US president, JD Vance, as well as Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were expected to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad this week, after a call between Trump and Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir.
In other key developments:
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Trump said the threatened US strikes on Iranian power plants had been postponed after “very good and productive” discussions with Iran about a “complete and total resolution of our hostilities” in the Middle East. After hitting a four-year high, the price of oil fell dramatically following Trump’s comments, while stocks in Asia rallied.
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Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, said he had spoken with Trump, who saw a chance of an agreement with Iran, but added that Israel would continue its strikes against Iran and Lebanon. Trump believed there was a possibility of “leveraging the mighty achievements obtained by the Israeli and the US military, in order to realise the goals of the war in a deal – a deal that will preserve our vital interests”, the Israeli prime minister claimed in a video statement released by his office.
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Israel said it had launched “wide-scale” strikes on Iran on Monday morning, while Tehran continued to fire missiles at the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Israeli military also claimed to have hit struck the main security headquarters of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as part of a “wave of strikes that was completed a short while ago in the heart of Tehran”.
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An Israeli strike also hit Beirut’s southern suburbs on Monday, Agence France-Presse quoted state media as saying, hours after the Israeli army issued an order for residents of the area to evacuate. An AFPTV live broadcast showed a cloud of smoke over the densely populated southern suburbs, which are considered a Hezbollah stronghold and have not been hit since Friday night.
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British destroyer HMS Dragon arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, three weeks after an Iranian-made drone hit the British base of RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, the UK’s defence secretary said. The British government has faced criticism for the slowness to deploy a warship to the region, after moves by Greece and France to send extra naval support to Cyprus after the attack.
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Slovenia became the first EU member state to introduce fuel rationing in a bid to tackle disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation on their allies in the Gulf.
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Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said it had intercepted and destroyed at least five drones over the kingdom’s eastern region.
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The US embassy in Muscat lifted its shelter in place guidance for the city, but the guidance remains in place for the rest of Oman, the embassy said on X. It earlier issued a security alert for the whole country because of “ongoing activity”, without elaborating.