There have been so many abortive rounds of diplomacy between the US and Iran – the latest appearing to be led by Pakistan after Washington has burned through many other regional mediators – that it was hardly a surprise that President Trump’s claims of “very good” talks with Tehran initially provoked disbelief – especially after Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place at all.
Nonetheless, standing beside Air Force One, Trump did his best to sell the sudden detente with little detail as a US ultimatum to bomb Iran’s power plants loomed unless Tehran opened up the strait of Hormuz. It was lost on few that the sudden about-face came just hours before US markets were to open for what promised to be another punishing round of trading on Monday.
Asked who the US was negotiating with in Iran, Trump said: “We are dealing with a man that I believe is the most respected, not the supreme leader, we have not heard from him.” Asked to name the person, Trump suggested he could be targeted if he did so: “I can’t. I don’t want them to be killed.”
His description of the terms of a deal was similarly shaky. Iran would not have a nuclear weapon, he said, but control over the strait of Hormuz would be held by “maybe me, me and the Ayatollah … whoever the next Ayatollah is. And there will also be some form of regime change, very serious regime change.” Once again, envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, were leading the talks.
The reported interlocutor of the United States is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament of Iran, who previously served as an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander and has steadily baited and mocked Trump on social media since the outbreak of hostilities.
Ghalibaf has already denied that he or anyone in Iran’s government is speaking with the United States and claimed that Trump was seeking to mitigate the financial damage done by Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” said Ghalibaf.
While any negotiations face an uphill battle, it is clear that they are moving with a renewed push from Pakistan, an ally of the United States, with which Iran has close ties, as well as other regional powers outside the Gulf, including Egypt and Turkey.
Iran’s foreign ministry has said that in recent days it received messages from “some friendly countries indicating a US request for negotiations aimed at ending the war,” according to spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei, but denied there were ongoing talks directly between Iran and the United States.
The talks have been met with a tentative welcome by international leaders, including Keir Starmer, who made the point that the United Kingdom was aware of the talks in the first place.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader who has sought to manoeuvre Trump into providing Israel further support for the conflict, said on Monday that he had spoken with Trump and sought to present a potential deal as one that could safeguard Israel’s interests.
Trump “believes that there is a chance to leverage the massive achievements of the IDF and the US military in order to achieve the goals of the war through an agreement – an agreement that protects our vital interests”, Netanyahu said in the statement.
Yet Israel, which has taken the lead in assassinating successive levels of Iran’s leadership since 28 February, may not be ready to cut a deal just yet. Israel is “continuing to strike, in Iran and in Lebanon”, he said.
The latest negotiations may also be another way for Trump to buy time, especially with oil and energy markets. The Pentagon is still moving marines and airborne soldiers into position, and the coming days will see the US poised for a strike or potential occupation of Iran’s islands or coastline that would allow the reopening of the strait of Hormuz – a likely contingency plan for Trump if he cannot produce a diplomatic triumph at this late hour.