Oil prices fall sharply after Trump claims war will be over ‘very soon’
Callum Jones
Oil prices have tumbled back from the four-year highs they hit on Monday after Donald Trump suggested the US-Israel war on Iran could end “very soon”.
It has been an extraordinary 24 hours in global markets.
This time yesterday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – triggering stark sell-offs across leading Asian and European stock indices. Wall Street also started the day under pressure in New York.
Then Trump, who pays close attention to market movements, started talking. The war on Iran as “very complete, pretty much”, the US president claimed in an interview with CBS News.
Brent crude, which climbed as high as $119.50 per barrel on Monday, fell back sharply to settle at $98.96. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 clawed out of the red to finish the day higher.
Key events
Iran threatens to block regional oil exports
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said Tehran will not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US-Israeli attacks continue, while Donald Trump threatened to hit the Islamic republic far harder if it stopped the flow of oil in the vital strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement carried by state media that they would “determine the end of the war”, in comments after the US president earlier said the conflict would end “soon”.
The Guards’ statement was quoted as saying: “The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war.”
In an apparent response to the statement, Trump has just posted on his Truth Social platform:
If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!
Israel says it hit Iranian launcher after missile barrage
Israel struck an Iranian missile launcher shortly after a barrage fired from the Islamic republic triggered air raid warnings in several Israeli areas, Israel said on Tuesday.
Late on Monday the Israeli military said it identified a round of Iranian missile fire and was working “to intercept the threat”.
The Iranian launches sparked air raid warnings in several parts of Israel, forcing people to head for shelter.
But the Magen David Adom emergency services said it received no reports of casualties after the latest round of Iranian fire.
Agence France-Presse also reports the Israeli military then said it “had struck the missile launcher that launched missiles toward the state of Israel a short while ago”.
Before the latest Iranian attack, Israel had announced what it called a “broad wave” of strikes on Tehran, the second such assault launched on Monday.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is saying security in the region will be for everyone or for no one, state media is reportedly quoting a spokesperson for the elite force as saying.
We’ll have more on this soon.
Iranian politicians and institutions have issued pledges of loyalty to new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father, wife, son and mother died at the start of the US-Israeli air onslaught, according to Iranian state media.
“We will obey the commander-in-chief until the last drop of our blood,” a defence council statement said.
But Reuters is reporting that Iranians reached by phone were divided over his appointment, with supporters of the authorities hailing the choice as a declaration of defiance and opponents fearful it would dash their hopes for change.
Many Iranians had initially celebrated the death of Khamenei’s father and supreme leader Ali Khamenei, weeks after his security forces killed thousands of anti-government protesters. But there has since been little sign of anti-government activity, with activists fearful of taking to the streets while Iran is under attack.
“The [Revolutionary] Guards and the system are still powerful,” said Babak, 34, a businessperson in the central city of Arak who asked to keep his family name confidential.
They have tens of thousands of forces ready to fight to keep this regime in place. We, the people, have nothing.
Deepa Parent
As the Israeli military announced it had launched a broad wave of attacks in Tehran, two residents told the Guardian that they had been under heavy bombardment and heard back-to-back explosions in the past half hour.
One Tehran resident in the east of the capital said they had lost electricity and there was a loud sound followed by “several explosions, one after another”.
“The place they hit has caught fire,” she said, adding that there were several jets in the air.
They’re destroying Iran.
Australia to deploy aircraft and missiles to Gulf
Krishani Dhanji
The Australian government has said it will deploy a military surveillance plane to the Gulf as 12 countries in the region face attacks from Iran.
The government confirmed the deployment of the E-7A Wedgetail was at the request of the United Arab Emirates and said it would also provide advanced medium range air-to-air missiles to the UAE.
The Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese, said the deployment would be in a defensive, not an offensive, capacity.
We’re taking defensive action to support our partners efforts to keep Australians safe. Deployed ADF [Australian defence force] assets will operate according to the right of collective self-defence.
Albanese said the UAE alone had already been forced to shoot down more than 1,500 drones and rockets.
Oil prices fall sharply after Trump claims war will be over ‘very soon’
Callum Jones
Oil prices have tumbled back from the four-year highs they hit on Monday after Donald Trump suggested the US-Israel war on Iran could end “very soon”.
It has been an extraordinary 24 hours in global markets.
This time yesterday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – triggering stark sell-offs across leading Asian and European stock indices. Wall Street also started the day under pressure in New York.
Then Trump, who pays close attention to market movements, started talking. The war on Iran as “very complete, pretty much”, the US president claimed in an interview with CBS News.
Brent crude, which climbed as high as $119.50 per barrel on Monday, fell back sharply to settle at $98.96. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 clawed out of the red to finish the day higher.
One person has died and others been injured from a “blatant” Iranian attack targeting a residential building in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, the country’s interior ministry has said on social media.
The count was preliminary, it said, without specifying the number of injured.
The day so far
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Donald Trump described the US-Israeli war on Iran as a “short-term excursion” and said it would end “very soon”, as the assault on Tehran entered its second week. He said the war is “very complete, pretty much” and ahead of schedule, a significant shift from his previous suggestions it could last several weeks. But he also indicated he was not yet declaring the US mission accomplished. “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said. The operation would only end once Tehran no longer has any capacity of weaponry against the US, Israel or any US allies in the region for a long time, he later added. Here’s our report.
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Trump twice declined to say whether or not Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei had a target on his back, saying only that he was “disappointed” and thought he was “going to lead to just more of the same problem for the country”. It came after a day of Trump being dismissive of the late ayatollah’s son – saying his selection was a “big mistake” and he was “not happy” about it – and reiterating that he still wants to be involved in the selection of a leader. Israel, meanwhile, has openly vowed to target the new supreme leader.
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It comes as large crowds took to the streets in Tehran in a defiant show of support for Khamenei.
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Meanwhile, Israel launched its second wave of strikes today against Tehran. The IDF claimed it had started a broad wave of strikes against “terror targets” in the Iranian capital, but it has been hitting critical energy and fuel infrastructure that serves ordinary Iranians.
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Israel also pressed its offensive against Hezbollah with raids in the south and airstrikes in Beirut. Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed 486 people, including at least 83 children, since 2 March, Lebanese state news reported, citing the country’s health ministry. At least 600,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, sparking fears of a humanitarian catastrophe.
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Fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks also targeted Israel, US bases across the Middle East and energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
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Oil prices surged by 20% to a four-year high before coming back down below $90 a barrel after Trump’s suggestion the war would end soon. Iran earlier mocked the US over the rocketing oil price, branding its campaign “Operation Epic Mistake”.
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British Typhoon jets intercepted drones heading towards Jordan and Bahrain, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said.
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Turkey said Nato defences shot down a ballistic missile in its airspace, the second intercepted missile from Iran in a week.
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Five female Iranian footballers have been granted humanitarian visas by Australia following an appeal from Donald Trump to Anthony Albanese. Our story is here.
Trump says that once the United States is done with the military operation against Iran, Tehran will no longer have any capacity of weaponry against the US, Israel or any US allies in the region for a long time.
Trump twice declines to say if Iran’s new supreme leader has a target on his back
Asked again if Mojtaba Khamenei has a target on his back, Trump declines a second time:
I don’t know want to say if he does or not, because that would be inappropriate.
Trump ‘disappointed’ with Iran’s new supreme leader and says will ‘lead to more of the same problem’
Asked if Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has a target on his back, Trump says he was “disappointed”.
I was disappointed because we think it’s going to lead to just more of the same problem for the country. So I was disappointed to see their choice.
Asked about his previous comments that he had someone in mind to lead Iran, Trump says:
I like the idea of internal and eternal.
He adds:
I would like to see people that are inside.
They talk about the son of the shah [exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi], they talk about other people. But [he] hasn’t been there in many, many years.
We have a formula that’s been very good so far, and I think it will continue to be good.
Trump is asked if the US will accept any responsibility for the attack on a girls’ primary school in Minab, Iran, after a US Tomahawk hit the naval base next to it.
The US president says:
Well, I haven’t seen it.
He says other countries use Tomahawks and the incident is being investigated.
A reminder that the attack killed 168 people, most of whom were children.
Trump says war on Iran will be over ‘very soon’
Asked if he thought the war on Iran would end this week, Trump says: “No, but I think soon. Very soon.”
Donald Trump says he had a “very good call” with Vladimir Putin.
They talked about Ukraine and the “never-ending fight” there, he says.
They also talked about the Middle East. Putin wants to be helpful, he says.
Note: He was also asked if he approves of Iran’s new supreme leader in the first part of this question, which he ignored entirely.
Iran says any Arab and European country that expels US and Israeli envoys will be able to freely use strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that any Arab or European country that expels Israeli and US ambassadors from its territory will be granted unrestricted passage through the strait of Hormuz starting on Tuesday.
According to Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said those countries would have the “full right and freedom” to transit the strategic waterway if they sever diplomatic ties with both Israel and the United States.
Hundreds of ships remain anchored on both sides of the strategic waterway as oil and shipping markets watch for any sign that sailings might pick up through the narrow corridor. Roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows through the strait.