Discussions are said to be under way as to which former European heavyweights should represent the EU in any peace talks with Russia. Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi and Sauli Niinistö, the former president of Finland, are names that have cropped up as potential envoys. While meaningless in substance, because there is no negotiation in sight, the story points to a wider truth about the Ukraine war and Europe’s role.
Like other European conversations on Ukraine before it, this one has an abstract flavour. Europe planned, for instance, to send a “reassurance force” to Ukraine in the event of a Donald Trump-mediated ceasefire. A possible maritime initiative in the strait of Hormuz, should a deal be reached between the US, Israel and Iran, bringing the war there to a definitive end, is in the works. None of these plans have been implemented, because the scenarios on which they are based have not materialised. Likewise, there is no imminent negotiation with Russia that an envoy could be dispatched to. The war in Ukraine is raging on, as underlined by Russia’s bombardment of Kyiv at the weekend, which involved its hypersonic “Oreshnik” ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. And, as Lithuanians rushing to shelters after a drone alert remind us, a wider hybrid war between Russia and Europe is already under way.
Yet even if empty Euro talk about which safe pair of hands could negotiate with Vladimir Putin is premature, it reveals a deeper truth about what is happening. I was in Kyiv a few weeks ago, and am looking forward to returning next month. At no point since late 2022 have I sensed such grounded confidence.
Ukrainians have no illusions. They have endured another devastating winter in which Russia shattered much of their energy infrastructure, leaving millions in the freezing cold for months. They expect another horrendous winter ahead; many fear that Moscow will turn its assault to water supply infrastructure as well. Ukrainians have internalised the betrayal by the US, with Trump’s unashamed siding with Putin. They take it as a given that US military support, which has shrunk since Trump’s return to office, is not coming back.
They also assume that the temporary US suspension of sanctions on Russian oil will become permanent. More broadly, they do not believe the war is coming to an end soon. In fact, most believe – as I do – that as long as Putin remains in power, it will go on. Nor do Ukrainians think that, under current circumstances, they will be able to retake sizeable portions of the territories occupied by Russia. That opportunity has not presented itself since September 2022, when Ukrainian forces retook Kharkiv and much of Kherson. Since then, it has been a bloody war of attrition, in which Russia has advanced at a snail’s pace.
Yet Ukrainians also see that the snail is moving slower and slower, almost grinding to a halt – even as Russian casualties rise by 20,000, 30,000, at times more, each month. And the cracks in the Russian economy are ever more visible. Russia’s is now a war economy to such a degree that almost every other industrial sector has shrunk, if not disappeared. This does not mean Putin will stop – quite the opposite. Ukrainians are acutely aware of the vast resources being poured into Russia’s war machine, particularly into the production of missiles and drones.
But this merely boosts Ukrainians’ confidence in their ability to keep resisting. So, too, do the remarkable advances made by Ukraine’s defence industry, centred on drone technology. Whereas four years ago Ukraine depended entirely on military support from abroad, today about 60% of the military capabilities used by Ukrainian forces are produced domestically. The queue of European defence companies seeking to partner with Ukrainian counterparts continues to grow. And, as Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s trip to the Gulf in the midst of the Iran war underlines, interest in Ukrainian defence expertise extends well beyond Europe.
Ukrainians are now confident that European governments will not abandon them, a confidence that has grown after the ousting of Viktor Orbán, who had become Putin’s mouthpiece and Trojan horse in Brussels. This has nothing to do with faith in the goodness of European hearts or trust in solidarity. In fact, Kyiv is increasingly frustrated with the slowness of the EU membership process.
Friedrich Merz’s latest proposal that Ukraine be given a non-voting “associate membership”, an attempt to improve an earlier Franco-German idea for “symbolic membership”, has gone down badly in Kyiv. President Zelenskyy’s response to the first proposal was scathing to say the least. But Ukrainians neverthelss sense that Europeans will stand by them based on a hardheaded assessment of where European self-interest lies. And indeed this is being borne out in practice, with approval for a €90bn package to Ukraine over the next two years backed by the EU budget. The US has stepped back, and Europeans have stepped up.
Which brings us back to the talk of a European envoy. Empty as it is, it reveals a stark truth. In the Ukraine war, the US no longer holds the cards. Trump surrendered them when he betrayed Kyiv and the rest of Europe. But together, Ukraine and the rest of Europe have leverage. And they are beginning to see it.